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The Quizical Prophecy [views and thoughts from some kansas folks ]

17/10/2004

Well lately polls are showing Bushing moving back into a 3-5 point lead, and you have got to wonder why that is. According to the MSM Kerry cleaned the Presidents clock in the debates. I have a theory to why this is.

I think Kerry is totally forgettable. Unless you are reminded of him constantly the only person you really think of is the President, do I like him this week or dont I. Is he doing good or bad. Kerry is a sidebar, the back up plan for Americans. This truly is a referendum on the President this year. You ask any supporter of Kerry and you ask him what Kerry's plan is for the Economy they either cannot tell you or they tell you something that isnt true. Take Kerry's Iraq plan for instance, Kerry's supporters will tell you its different from the Presidents, but when pushed to tell you the plan once again its either they cant tell you or if they do its the same plan as the Presidents.

Another factor I believe is that alot of the Democrats gameplan was bet on hate, can we extend the 30% of America that hates Bush into the 20% that dislike or arent sure about the President. What it comes down to is you cant win on hate. I think a good 5% - 10% of the Kerry supporters are going to wane in the closing weeks of the campaign because very simply Kerry hasnt offered anything that has real meat on it.

Of course I am not a political scientist nor am I a proffesional pollster.

My final popular vote prediction is Bush 51.7% Kerry 47.3% Other .7% none .3%

My final EV vote prediction is Bush 290 EV Kerry 250 EV, This accounts for election fraud caused by the democrats, look for a couple of places to have 110% turnout such as cincinatti and philadelphia. Also 1 EV goes to Bush from Maine. Bush could end up with a modern version of an EV landslide with over 330 EV's or he could lose it by just a few points, Bush obviously has the strategic advantage this year over his challenger.


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